The Economics of Transformative AI
The Economics of Transformative AI
A thought-provoking examination of how AI might either spur or harm human economic progress.
What happens to an economy when machines can think as well as, or even better than, humans? The Economics of Transformative AI tackles this issue, which is one of the most consequential economic questions of our time. This book brings together sixteen research studies from top economists that look closely at how transformative AI reshapes everything from innovation and market structure to employment, inequality, and human purpose. They explore both opportunities, such as personalized algorithmic assistance, accelerated scientific discovery, and new forms of organization, and profound challenges, including potential labor displacement, rising concentration of power, changes in the information ecosystem, and even possible existential risks to humanity.
The studies in this volume develop economic frameworks for understanding the conditions under which AI might enhance or undermine human flourishing. They offer policymakers, researchers, and business leaders the analytical tools needed to prepare for the potential economic transformations ahead.
496 pages | 10 halftones, 23 line drawings, 17 tables | 6 x 9
National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report
Economics and Business: Business--Business Economics and Management Studies, Business--Industry and Labor, Economics--Development, Growth, Planning
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Ajay Agrawal, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Anton Korinek
I. Foundations of Transformative AI Economics
1. Genius on Demand: The Value of Transformative Artificial Intelligence
Ajay Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, and Avi Goldfarb
Comment: Luis Garicano
2. Artificial Intelligence in Research and Development
Benjamin F. Jones
Comment: Bronwyn H. Hall
3. Making AI Count: The Next Measurement Frontier
Diane Coyle and John Lourenze Poquiz
Comment: Carol Corrado
II. Markets, Competition, and Organization
4. Artificial Intelligence, Competition, and Welfare
Susan Athey and Fiona Scott Morton
Comment: Catherine E. Tucker
5. An Economy of AI Agents
Gillian K. Hadfield and Andrew Koh
Comment: Kevin A. Bryan
6. The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents
Peyman Shahidi, Gili Rusak, Benjamin S. Manning, Andrey Fradkin, and John J. Horton
Comment: David Rothschild
7. Transformative AI and Firms
Aaron Chatterji, Daniel Rock, and Eduard Talamàs
Comment: Toby Stuart
III: Labor, Distribution, and Human Welfare
8. How Adaptable Are American Workers to AI-Induced Job Displacement?
Sam Manning and Tomás Aguirre
Comment: Dimitris Papanikolaou
9. We Won’t Be Missed: Work and Growth in the AGI World
Pascual Restrepo
Comment: Neil Thompson, Danial Lashkari, and Omeed Maghzian
10. What Is There to Fear in a Post-AGI World?
Betsey Stevenson
Comment: Ioana Marinescu
11. Algorithms as a Vehicle to Reflective Equilibrium: Behavioral Economics 2.0
Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, Sophia L. Pink, and Ashesh Rambachan
Comment: Abhishek Nagaraj
IV: Information, Knowledge, and Systemic Risks
12. AI’s Use of Knowledge in Society
Erik Brynjolfsson and Zoë Hitzig
Comment: Avi Goldfarb
13. Science in the Age of Algorithms
Sendhil Mullainathan and Ashesh Rambachan
Comment: Ajay Agrawal, John McHale, and Alexander Oettl
14. The Impact of AI and Digital Platforms on the Information Ecosystem
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Màxim Ventura-Bolet
Comment: Wei Li
V: Policy Responses and Long-Term Considerations
15. Public Finance in the Age of AI: A Primer
Anton Korinek and Lee M. Lockwood
Comment: Matthew Weinzierl
16. How Much Should We Spend to Reduce AI’s Existential Risk?
Charles I. Jones
Comment: Judith Chevalier
Author Index
Subject Index